DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/30 11:00
Grains Mixed at Midday
Corn is flat to 2 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents higher, and wheat
is 3 to 6 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 420. The dollar index is 8
points lower. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are weaker with crude
down $0.70. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with
gold up $13.00.
Corn trade is mixed with December flat to 2 cents lower as spread trade
weakness heading towards the weekend. Ethanol margins remain stable with corn
and energies fading this week with blender margins losing ground as unleaded
approaches $1.00 on the board. Basis has seen some weakness as barge freight
rallies. On the December contract resistance is the fresh high at $4.21 3/4
with support the 20-day at $4.00 which we are just below at midday.
Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with weaker spread action as
the November contract goes into delivery with the export wire quieter this week
with 121,500 metric tons announced to unknown this a.m. Meal is flat to $1.00
lower and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. Brazil should continue to make
planting progress with the better rains short term for most, while Argentina
has seen a little more mixed weather and continued slow farmer movement. Basis
remains strong as we continue to work to max out our logistics capacity to ship
the needed export bushels. The January chart has resistance at the fresh high
at 10.88 1/2 with support the 20-day at 10.57 which we are back below at midday.
Wheat trade is 2 to 7 cents lower with trade chopping around support levels
and KC action leading so far with early strength fading. The near term weather
pattern looks to warm up for the plains to support growth with moisture still
short in many areas. The ruble action continues to favor Russia a bit in the
export markets but their domestic prices are now elevated but with improved
short term weather, along with Australia harvest expanding. Middle East buyers
are becoming more active with tenders as well. KC is at a 61-cent discount to
Chicago with spreads headed back to the lower end of the range, while
Minneapolis is back to 51 cent discount with very active spread action on
going. KC December chart resistance is the fresh high at $5.79 1/2, and support
is the 20-day at $5.47 which we are now solidly below, then the lower Bollinger
band at $5.18.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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