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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/21 10:49

   Wheat Futures Lower at Midday; Corn Flat-Lower; Soybeans Mixed

   Corn futures are flat to 1 cent lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
narrowly mixed; wheat futures are 1 to 11 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are flat to 1 cent lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
narrowly mixed; wheat futures are 1 to 11 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is 
firmer with the S&P 35 higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 20 points lower. 
Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude up 1.10 and 
natural gas off .05. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold off 30.00.


   Corn futures are flat to 1 cent lower with spread action remaining firmer 
with early buying giving way to midday weakness as buying interest waned. 
Ethanol margins will continue to work sideways with corn action narrowing 
things a little while driving demand starts to work higher seasonally with a 
fast start to the week. Crop development in Brazil will be watched closer as 
double-crop planting winds up with the forecast drying a little to help for now 
with potential concerns if it shows the dry season starting while Argentina 
limps towards the finish line. The daily export wire saw action again with 
China securing another 136,000 metric tons (mt) of corn. Basis has remained 
flat to firmer. On the May chart, support is the lower Bollinger Band back 
below the market at $6.01, and the 20-day moving average at $6.34, which we 
faded from this morning.


   Soybean action is narrowly mixed with early gains fading again as we remain 
at the lower end of the recent range with trade needing a bullish spark to 
sustain buying. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 higher and oil is 160 to 170 points 
lower with oil unable to escape the low end of the range. The daily export wire 
has been quiet as we get deeper into Brazil's prime export season. Trade will 
be looking for the Brazil export pace to improve with the strong recent 
movement with harvest moving along with drier weather short term likely to help 
with Argentina to catch some isolated moisture as the growing season winds down 
with Brazil basis fading. New crop continues to see losses vs. corn as the time 
to bid for acres grows short with early strength giving way again Tuesday. 
Basis remains mostly sideways to soft near term. May chart resistance is at the 
$15.05 20-day moving average, which we are solidly below with the upper 
Bollinger Band at $15.44 as further resistance, and the Lower Bollinger Band at 
$14.72, which we tested Monday before bouncing.


   Wheat futures are 1 to 11 cents lower at midday with early gains and spread 
strength turning to selling with soft euro values and ags shifting back towards 
risk-off at midday turning trade to selling. The KC wheat areas look to remain 
on the shorter end of moisture over the next couple of weeks with short-term 
weather warming up a little with SRW seeing moisture, with the Northern Plains 
mixed ahead of planting. World wheat weather remains mixed short term with 
India harvest starting in some areas with exports likely to be delayed until 
later. Matif wheat values are weaker again as they have limited upside with the 
recent weakness. On the chart, KC May has the 20-day moving average at support 
at $8.19 that we are testing at midday, with the Upper Bollinger Band well 
above the market at $8.61.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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